.. _book_fig_chapter5_fig_posterior_binomial:


Binomial Posterior
------------------
Figure 5.9

The solid line in the left panel shows the posterior pdf p(b|k, N) described by
eq. 5.71, for k = 4 and N = 10. The dashed line shows a Gaussian approximation
described in Section 3.3.3. The right panel shows the corresponding cumulative
distributions. A value of 0.1 is marginally likely according to the Gaussian
approximation (p_approx(< 0.1) ~ 0.03) but strongly rejected by the true
distribution (p_true(< 0.1) ~ 0.003).



.. image:: ../images/chapter5/fig_posterior_binomial_1.png
    :scale: 100
    :align: center


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